Are the Labor Savings Really There? Analysts Are Unsure

Nonpartisan legislative analysts say they can vouch for less than 40 percent of the $1.6 billion in labor savings figured into the next biennial budget, and are unable to assess the rest--more than $1 billion--because of unanswered questions or insufficient data, according to a memo submitted late Monday to the General Assembly.

The Office of Fiscal Analysis was careful to neither endorse nor refute the Malloy Administration's savings estimates involving proposed changes to pension and health benefits, longevity pay or undefined policy changes involving health care, technology and other government operations.

But legislative analysts were pressed for answers as the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives debated another omnibus policy bill designed to help implement the biennial budget adopted last month. The bill was passed early Tuesday on an 83 to 63 vote.

And since that plan hinges on a tentative concession deal that the administration insists is worth $700.7 million next fiscal year and $901.2 million in 2012-13, minority Republicans balked Monday at provision in the measure that would effectively pre-approve the deal - even though state employee unions aren't expected to complete their votes on ratification until late June.

"I think it's important to discuss the terms of the agreement," said House Minority Leader Lawrence F. Cafero, R-Norwalk, who requested further data from OFA after an initial fiscal note reported the savings projected by the administration, but offered no further comment on them. "If they (the savings) are not verifiable, if they're not true, if they're not achieved, our budget is out of balance."

"Please note that at this time we are unable to determine or verify the levels that are contained in these estimates in many cases," OFA Director Alan Calandro wrote in a memo to Cafero.

The memo also showed several unanswered questions tied to more than $665 million in projected savings for the next two years involving health and pension benefits and longevity pay for senior state employees.

No actuarial analysis was offered to defend $67 million to be saved by increasing penalties for senior employees who retire earlier than the normal age.

Analysts could not determine how much state government would contribute to provide a new hybrid retirement plan for higher education employees.

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